Why Oil Price Will (Probably) Stop Falling | Rory Johnston

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023.
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Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context:
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7
https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9
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Timecodes:
00:21 An "Exhausting" Oil Market
02:59 The Cautious Bull Case For Oil
11:28 OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices
24:20 Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop?
31:36 Guyana
34:22 Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies
49:13 The Russian Supply Question
54:55 Price Cap
59:02 Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil
01:03:10 The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls
01:09:02 Futures Curve
01:15:07 Recession Risk
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.