Michaell Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on his outlook on global liquidity. Howell notes that further evidence supports his long-held view that liquidity bottomed in October 2022, and he explains why he expects liquidity to strengthen further into 2024, making for a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Filmed on January 11, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Howell: Liquidity Conditions Continue To Strengthen From Their Lows In The Early Fall of 2022
12:26 Implications For Stocks, Gold, and Crypto
22:50 Industry Sectors At This Stage In The Liquidity Cycle
24:37 The Bond Market Is Being Distorted By The Federal Reserve
30:07 Term Premia And Convexity In Fixed-Income
37:07 Bank Term Funding Program and Draining of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility
40:11 Drivers Of Fed Liquidity In 2024 and Beyond
45:50 The Economic Cycle Is Different Than The Liquidity Cycle
50:51 Is Demand For Refinancing (and Liquidity) Lower Because U.S. Corporates & Households Have Such Long-Duration Liabilities?
54:35 China and The People's Bank of China (PBOC)
01:06:56 Howell's View On Interest Rates
01:09:08 Non-Central Bank Sources of Liquidity
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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