Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies as SCT Capital Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his many findings from his recent research on commodity investing. Krishnan and Farley also discuss the weather, the continuing dispersion between interest rate volatility and equity market volatility, and if the bond market really is smarter than the stock market. Filmed on December 19, 2024.
Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:38 Hari's Journey Into Commodities
10:10 Finding Upside Convexity In Commodity Options
17:35 Corn
21:41 Copper and Metals
22:53 Natural Gas Is Similar To The VIX (most Contango)
27:27 Seasonality
30:49 Commodity Stocks
34:08 Structural Bull Case For Commodities
38:57 What's Harder - Predicting Weather or Predicting The Stock Market?
41:22 Bread and Butter Volatility Trading
44:32 Views On VIX & Implied Volatility
50:17 Examples of Other "Disaster Trades" In The Volatility World
51:31 Rate Volatility Is Much Higher Than Equity Volatility - Why?
55:12 Is The Stock Market Smarter Than The Bond Market?
01:02:53 Reflexivity, Explained
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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