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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:24 Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
02:37 The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
06:45 Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already *HAVE* Had A Big Effect
08:46 Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
11:23 Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
14:04 Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
21:43 VanEck ad
22:50 Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
25:13 Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
26:51 The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
29:53 U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
32:28 If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
37:16 Macro Carry Strategies
42:52 The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
44:45 Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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