In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets.
Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more.
This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in! Filmed on Thursday, June 9, 2022.
--
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/
Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/
--
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:28 What Is Liquidity?
09:10 Declining Refinancing Capacity
13:46 Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window
24:50 Is This Unprecedented?
28:35 Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile?
30:16 The Fed And The VIX
33:16 Inflation and Recession
36:24 How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do?
39:20 Gold and Crypto
41:17 The U.S. Dollar's Role
45:17 The People's Bank of China
46:43 How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have?
49:12 The Commercial Banking System
53:33 Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed?
1:02:28 Yield Curve Interpretations
1:07:08 Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit?
1:09:03 "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity"
1:12:55 China
1:18:10 Closing Thoughts On The Market
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
No Comments