Jack’s next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro.
Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.
A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had “the everything short” (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does.
Filmed on Tuesday, April 26.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:51 Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022
04:20 Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022
05:43 The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly
07:58 The Fed's Key Error
11:05 Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth
16:06 Going From Short to Long The Bond Market
23:33 What If The Fed Remains Hawkish
26:14 Bit.com Ad
26:46 Oil & Bretton Woods 3
28:46 Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade
30:12 Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields
38:35 When Will Powell Pivot?
41:30 Gold
42:25 Crypto
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