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Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky?
Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!
Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).
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Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw
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Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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00:00 Introduction
01:30 Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions
07:09 Forward Volatility
10:53 New Outlooks
19:08 Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade
22:00 Navigating High Environments
27:34 The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio
33:15 The Nature Of Money
37:08 Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility
44:52 Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors
49:52 Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed
54:40 S and P 500 Options Volatility Market
57:05 Short Squeezes
1:02:10 Looking at Revenues within Companies
1:04:12 Are we headed towards a recession?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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