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Real VisionAugust 16, 2022
Why This Energy Crisis Will Get Hotter
U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here:
Real VisionAugust 16, 2022
Will This Winter Be the Worst of Times for Europe?
The war in Eastern Europe has devolved into one of attrition, with no end to hostilities on the horizon. Western policy makers are trying to cope with an energy crisis created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and exacerbated by decades of short-sighted long-term planning. Inflation is a problem over there, too, and growth prospects are even worse. Wouter Jongbloed, the head of political risk analysis at Exante Data, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the risks this energy crisis poses to Europe and whether a “standstill” between Moscow and Kyiv would have any bearing on markets and the broader region. This is also a crisis of the European Union’s authority: Will it be able to hold member states in line on natural gas consumption cuts, or will others go the way of Hungary and strike out on their own? Jongbloed also shares his thoughts on Taiwan and China in light of Ukraine and Russia and the impact on portfolios of rising geopolitical risk premia. Recorded on August 11, 2022.
Real VisionAugust 15, 2022
Is All the Bad News Priced In?
The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line.

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