Is the Reflation Trade Turning Now?

Real VisionApril 07, 2021
Keith Dicker, founder and chief investment officer of IceCap Asset Management, returns to Real Vision to explain why he disagrees with the "reflation" narrative that has buoyed commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Dicker argues that rising yields will draw capital into the U.S. from regions whose capital had not fully recovered from the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and was further impaired by the COVID-19 recession. Key learnings: Dicker sees signs that the reflation trade is grinding to a halt and argues that renewed strength in the U.S. dollar could emerge. He is constructive on dollar-denominated assets and thinks a melt-up in U.S. equities is possible. Dicker thinks emerging market currencies and commodity prices such as copper and oil could encounter weakness as global growth slows down.
Get access to daily trading ideas, trending topics, interviews and more!
Please subscribe to Canadian Insider Club Ultra

More Ultra Money Videos

Real VisionApril 16, 2021
The Exponential Age: Crypto's Fast and Furious Rise
Raoul Pal returns in his role as the founder of Global Macro Investor to update Real Vision members on the exponentially large role crypto is playing within his macro framework. Raoul argues that crypto is a "black hole" that is sucking in all of the world's talent and value at a speed that no one can comprehend and that its capacity to generate phenomenal returns for investors is not temporary but rather part of a durable long-term trend that is at the vanguard of what he calls "The Exponential Age." Raoul contends that since central banks have suppressed the volatility of currencies and interest rates, large "macro" on heavy swings in these variables no longer offer the opportunity they once did and that it is in the world of crypto where these outsized returns can be found. Filmed on April 10, 2021. Key learnings: Raoul sees the migration of value to the digital world as an exponential trend that offers opportunities for investment return that are no longer possible in traditional capital markets
Real VisionApril 15, 2021
The Bumpy Road to Reopening, Long-Term Supply Shortages, and Inflation
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss the newest release in the weekly jobless claims data, comparing the vaccine roll-out in the U.S. to other countries, and how we are on the precipice of inflation. Bianco points out how, even though jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, the question of job growth is trickier to address as enhanced benefits seem to be deterring people from seeking out work. He also considers how the level of COVID-19 infections and the pace of vaccine roll-outs both differ between the U.S., Europe, and Asia, which means that globally, the reopening is much further away. Bianco and Harrison also address how supply chain disruptions may feed into inflationary pressures, how new methodology may have an impact on CPI metrics, earnings expectations for this year, and Bianco’s thoughts on the trajectory of the bond market and rates.
Real VisionApril 15, 2021
Scott Burg: Identifying Opportunities and Risks in Structured Credit
Scott Burg, CIO and managing partner at Deer Park Road, is among the most seasoned and disciplined investors in the structured credit space who joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a conversation to break down the complex financial market within fixed income investing. Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), structured credit has carried a stigma among certain investors of being unduly risky. There have since been significant regulatory and other changes to the structured credit asset class that have helped improve investor protection and rendered the market more attractive. Filmed April 13, 2020. Key Learnings: In the age of Covid-19, Burg is bullish on structured products like residential real estate, aircrafts and franchises. Elsewhere though, there are problems, particularly in commercial real estate where Wall Street never skipped a beat in pumping out product post-GFC and where lending standards were loose, especially after 2012. The result is a plethora of opportunities on both the long and short side due to motivated pension fund and bank sellers. In the coming months and years, there is expected to be more opportunities, due to likely distress in hotels, office and retail.

Get a Canadian Insider Club Ultra subscription for

  • Insider filing email alerts
  • Access to premium INK Research reports
  • Full access to weekly North America Top filer reports
  • Ad-free browsing
  • INK Ultra Money premium content
Join us now!

(already an Ultra member? Please log into your account for access)


Top